July 26-August 1, 2013
Every once in a while, I like to take a break from recounting some of the exploits of our horses and horsemen at Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs to give a little handicapping advice to some of our casual fans. As we’re building up to a really busy part of the season with a lot of big stakes races on the horizon, this week seemed as good as any to catch our breaths and do a little primer on some of the things to look for when you’re placing a bet.
Now, I don’t pretend to be an expert in this field, but getting the opportunity to watch so many races over such a long period of time does qualify me to speak a little bit on the subject, especially to those who might not make it out to the track that often or might be planning their first trip. You’ll likely hear a lot of advice from a lot of people, and I’m here to tell you which advice is worth considering and which might be a tad misleading. To do this, we’ll break it down into some handicapping hints that are overrated and some that are underrated.
OVERRATED: DRIVER CHOICES OF HORSES
In most of the races on a typical card, a driver will be the preferred driver of the owners of multiple horses in the field. When that occurs, the driver must choose what choice he or she will drive, and that information is now included at the bottom of the program page, saying something like “George Napolitano Jr. #1 over #5 & #6.” Many people feel like the horses chosen by drivers are the ones deserving of their money while those who weren’t chosen should be avoided, the logic being that a driver will always choose who he feels will be his best chance of winning.
That, however, may be an oversimplification of the situation. Drivers often have relationships with certain trainers and owners that take first priority when it comes to choosing horses. The bottom line is that, if you like the potential of a certain horse in a race to score, don’t be scared off if a driver chose to take the reins of somebody else. If anything, that information might give even more value to your selection.
UNDERRATED: DRIVER CHANGES ON HORSES
Sometimes it takes a little change to get a horse moving in the right direction. Getting a fresh set of driver’s hands aboard might be all that it takes to get a slumping horse over the hump. Obviously, this is an even handier tip if an experienced, successful driver is taking over for one who might not be in the sulky that often. This is one of the best ways to find live long shots.
OVERRATED: TIMES ACHIEVED ON TRACKS OTHER THAN POCONO
Mohegan Sun at Pocono is one of the fastest tracks in the country. A horse who has been appearing at other tracks might shave several seconds off its time once he makes the trip to Pocono. So don’t get concerned if a horse shipping in might not have the kind of times that Pocono regulars might possess. In the case of shippers new to Pocono, focus on the purses for which they have competed compared to the one for which they will be racing when they arrive to get a feel for their talent level.
UNDERRATED: TIMES IN PREVIOUS RACES AT POCONO
Many people get locked in on horses who are dropping down in class above any other consideration. Those horses might be dropping because they have been struggling mightily, and that might not change with a drop in class. A good way to judge droppers in class is to pick a time that you think it will take to win the race into which it’s dropping, and see if the times it has been achieving are comparable to that. If they’re considerably slower, it’s likely that the back class won’t help the horse a bit.
OVERRATED: MORNING LINES
You know how I know they’re overrated: I make them. I like to think I do the best I can in anticipating the betting odds, but, considering that I must have these odds done about three days before race night so they can be printed in the program, I often lack all the information you’ll have at your disposal on race night, such as driver changes, late scratches, late lines, and many other things that certainly have a bearing on a horse’s potential performance.
UNDERRATED: FINAL BETTING LINES
You’d be hard-pressed to find a handicapper in the country who picks a higher percentage of winners than the consensus of those betting on a particular race, which is reflected in the final betting line. Obviously, long shots happen, but it’s never a bad idea to play the chalk if you want consistent returns on your winnings throughout the night. If you want to make bigger money, use the favorite and selected long shots in exotic plays.
I hope this little tutorial helps you out the next time you’re at the windows. When in doubt, however, forget all other advice and go with your gut. That trumps anything you can find in the program.
That will do it for this week, but we’ll see you at the track. Feel free to e-mail me at jbeviglia@mohegansunpocono.com.